ATP Miami Qualifying Bet Preview: Best Bets for March 18

Our ATP Miami Qualifying bet preview takes a look at the first round of qualies for the Masters 1000 tournament that kicks off on Monday. The qualifying draw is loaded with talent looking to make the main draw of the second M1000 this season.

Our tennis experts break down the three best bets for ATP Miami qualifying. With 24 matches on the slate for Monday, there is some great value to be found in the first round of qualies, as always.

About ATP Miami Qualifying

The Miami qualifiers will begin at 11am EST on Monday morning.

The qualifying rounds will not be broadcast on any TV channels. However, you can check our list of live stream sportsbooks to find out the best betting sites to watch the streamed matches.

Gabriel Diallo vs Sumit Nagal Bet Preview

Our first ATP Miami Qualifying bet preview takes a look at the 11am match between Canada’s Gabriel Diallo (-115) and India’s Sumit Nagal (-110).

Gabriel Diallo vs Sumit Nagal H2H

The Miami qualifying match will be the first meeting between Nagal and Diallo,.

Gabriel Diallo Form

Diallo is one of the brightest future stars of Canadian tennis, standing at 6’8 and packing a huge serve. He was one of the top college players in the US before turning pro, reaching #4 in the national rankings while at Kentucky.

His first pro season in 2023 saw him get some huge wins on hard court, beating top-40 player Daniel Evans in Toronto and top-20 Lorenzo Musetti in the Davis Cup. He went on to win Challenger Bratislava in October to end the year well and started 2024 making the semifinal of the Canberra Challenger.

After losing to Nuno Borges in the first round of Delray Beach over a month ago, Diallo stayed in Florida for intensive training the past month. Though he hasn’t played a match in about 35 days, the fact that he took time off to focus on his game shows that he should be ready for this match.

Sumit Nagal Form

Nagal started 2024 off well, winning three qualifying matches to make the Australian Open main draw. Once there, he beat 31st-seeded Alexander Bublik before losing to Shang Juncheng in the second round.

Nagal then went on to win the Chennai Challenger in his home country, beating Luca Nardi (yes, the same one that beat Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells) for the title before losing in the semifinal of Banglahore.

Since then, things have been a bit rough for Nagal. He was upset as a -800 favorite in the second round of the Pune Challenger, then losing in the first round of Dubai in a winnable match against Lorenzo Sonego.

The Indian Wells qualifying saw him once again be upset, this time as a -300 favorite against South Korea’s Hong Seong Chan. He did make the main draw as a lucky loser, where he lost to another big serving Canadian in Milos Raonic.

Diallo vs Nagal Best Bet

Nagal’s 14-7 record on hard court this season is inflated, as aside from the win at the AO against Bublik, he hasn’t faced any real competition.

Diallo hasn’t been great to start off 2024, but the fact that he committed to a month of serious training in Florida in preparation for Miami is positive. Nagal just got blasted off the court by Raonic, only creating two break points and not converting either of them.

Diallo is the more talented player here and Nagal struggles with big serves, so I’m taking Diallo Moneyline -125 at BetMGM.

Jakub Mensik vs Luca Nardi Bet Preview

Our second ATP Miami Qualifying bet preview takes a look at two up-and-comers that have recently taken the tennis world by storm. Czechia’s Jakub Mensik (-200) takes on Italy’s Luca Nardi (+150), who is fresh off a career win over Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells.

Jakub Mensik vs Luca Nardi H2H

As both of these players are young, this is the first time they are playing against each other.

Jakub Mensik Form

One of the hottest young prospects in tennis at just 18 years old, Mensik has had a fantastic start to 2024. After losing in the Canberra Challenge final to begin the season, he made his way through AO qualifying to beat Denis Shapovalov before losing a tight five-setter to 9th-ranked Hubert Hurkacz.

He then went on a fantastic run to the Doha finals, beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Andy Murray, Andrey Rublev and Gael Monfils. He lost 7-6 6-4 in the final to Karen Khachanov, but beating those big names shows just how much talent he has.

Davidovich Fokina got his revenge in the second-round of Dubai. Then, Mensik lost a tight three-set battle with 16th-seed Ben Shelton in Indian Wells.

Overall, it looks like Mensik has really taken the step up this season and scalping big names shows just how much of a future the young Czech has.

Luca Nardi Form

Nardi had a magical run in Indian Wells, making the main draw after losing to David Goffin in the second round of qualifying.

The 20-year-old Italian made the most of being a Lucky Loser, knocking off Zhizhen Zhang in the second round. Then, he took out the #1 seed in Djokovic in a 6-4 3-6 6-3 battle. However, he couldn’t build off that life-changing win as a he fell to American Tommy Paul 6-4 6-3 in the round of 16.

While the win against Djokovic was massive for Nardi, the match felt more like Djokovic lost rather than a triumph for the Italian. Djokovic’s attitude throughout the match showed he was frustrated throughout and simply wasn’t playing his regular level of tennis.

Aside from a run in Indian Wells and making the final of Challenger Chennai, Nardi has been wildly inconsistent this season. He lost as a -800 favorite in Canberra, as a -300 favorite at the Australian Open, and as a -300 favorite again in both Montpellier and Banglahore.

Jakub Mensik vs Luca Nardi Best Bet

As great of a story as Nardi’s win in Indian Wells was, the fact that he was in the main draw after losing in qualifiers proves how his level fluctuates on a daily basis.

Mensik, on the other hand, is one of the most talented young players in the game. Beating the likes of Rublev and Davidovich Fokina in Doha shows that not only should he make it out of the qualies, but that he has a chance to make a run in Miami.

Had Nardi not beat Djokovic last week, Mensik would likely be a -300 or better favorite here.

Since the Moneyline has too much juice to take Mensik straight up, my best bet is Mensik to Win the First Set and the Match for -140 at DraftKings.

Arthur Cazaux vs Harold Mayot Bet Preview

Our final ATP Miami Qualifying bet preview looks at two young French players facing off for the second time this year. Arthur Cazaux is a heavy favorite (-400) against Harold Mayot (+270).

Arthur Cazaux vs Harold Mayot H2H

This is the second meeting of the season for the pair. Cazaux won the first matchup 7-6 7-6 in the semifinals of the Noumea Challenger in January on hard courts. Neither player could break the other, with Cazaux going 0/5 on break points while Mayot didn’t even get one in the match.

Arthur Cazaux Form

One of the most promising young players coming out of France, Cazaux has moved up to #74 in the world on the heels of a fantastic opening three months of the year.

He won the Noumea Challenger in January before reaching the fourth round of the AO. He picked up the biggest win of his career in Melbourne, taking out 8th-seed Holger Rune in four sets.

He breezed through the qualifying rounds of Doha and took out Musetti in the first round before losing the the #2 seed Rublev in the second round.

He lost the first qualifying round of Indian Wells as a -800 favorite against Benjamin Hassan, before being knocked out of the second round of the Phoenix Challenger versus Matteo Berrettini.

Harold Mayot Form

Mayot’s 2024 season has been in-line with his 141 ranking. He started off well with a semifinal appearance in Noumea before losing to Cazaux, then losing in the final round of qualifying at the AO against Mensik.

He once again made the semifinal of a challenger tournament in Quimper, losing to Duje Ajdukovic as a -200 favorite.

Since then, he’s lost four of his last six matches, including a second-round exits of qualifying of Indian Wells and the Phoenix Challenger.

Arthur Cazaux vs Harold Mayot Best Bet

Being the same age, these two are familiar with each other as they came up the ranks of the French tennis system together. Their match earlier this year was a close one in score, however Cazaux was by far the betting player in the match.

In two sets, Mayot was unable to create on break point and some big serving on clutch points helped him get to two tiebreaks. Since then, Cazaux has been trending upward while Mayot has had issues winning matches.

I believe that Cazaux will be able to take his break points in today’s matchup en route to a straight sets win, so my best bet is Arthur Cazaux to win 2-0 -130 at FanDuel.