Our ATP Shanghai bet preview takes a look at the two matches slated for Friday, complete with full analysis and our best bets.
Our ATP Shanghai bet preview takes a look at the two matches slated for Friday, complete with full analysis and our best bets.
Our ATP Shanghai quarterfinals bet preview looks at the two matches being played on October 11. In a tournament that has seen a ton of surprises already, four young players will be battling for a spot in Saturday’s semifinal.
Our tennis experts break down the two matches to give the best ATP Shanghai betting predictions, including our match winner picks and our best bets for each quarterfinal match.
The first ATP Shanghai quartfinal bet preview takes a look at Fabian Maroszan, the 91st-ranked player in the world from Hungary, taking on 17th-ranked Hubert Hurkacz from Poland.
Both men battled in tight three-setters to make it here, with Maroszan upsetting the 8th-seeded Casper Ruud in a 7-6 3-6 6-4 affair. Hurkacz edged the home favourite Zhang Zhizhen 7-6 4-6 7-6 to make it here.
Today’s ATP Shanghai quarterfinals odds come to us from Bet365.
Unsurprisingly, Hurkacz comes into the match as a 1.40 favourite, while Maroszan is listed as a 3.00 underdog.
The Maroszan/Hurkacz total games is set at 23.5, while the handicap has the favourite to win by 2.5 games.
After a surprising run on clay during the spring that saw Maroszan beat 1st-ranked Carlos Alacaraz in straight sets at the Rome Open, the Hungarian has reverted to his regular form. Although a strong showing at the Challenger Perugia in June saw him take home the title against lower opposition, things have not been going well on hard court until Shanghai.
Maroszan did get a five-set upset over aging Richard Gasquet in the US Open, but fell to 22nd-ranked Adrian Mannarino in the second round. In his last tournament, the Astana Open two weeks ago, Maroszan failed to win his lone qualifying match. In Kazakhstan, he lost to the 294th-ranked Alibek Kachmazov as a heavy favourite.
However, he got things back on track while in China. This week he has dispatched a tough hard court player in Arthur Rinderknech before defeating 11th-seed Alex Di Minaur in the second round. He then won in straight sets against Dusan Lajovic before taking out Ruud in the round of 16.
Hurkacz has had mixed results on hard court this season, opening the US swing with a first-round loss to American Michael Mmoh in a third-set tiebreak in Washington. He then ran into Alcaraz in the round of 16 in Toronto, narrowly losing to the world #1 in another third-set tiebreak. Cincinnati saw him knock off tough competition in Thanasi Kokkinakis, Borna Coric, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexei Popyrin before once again falling to Alcaraz in a close three sets.
His last official tournament was the US Open, where the rising Brit Jack Draper knocked him out in a surprisingly easy straight set match after Hurkacz defeated another youngster, Marc-Andrea Huesler, in the first round. Hurkacz also played in the Laver Cup afterwards, only featuring in doubles and losing both matches there.
As the 16th-seed in Shanghai, Hurkacz had a first-round bye before dispatching Kokkinakis and Yu Hsiou Hsu in the first two rounds. Against Zhang, Hurkacz won 85% of his first serve points but was broken twice before holding on in the decider.
As has always been the case with Hurkacz, his big serves allows him to hold rather easily. But, he does have trouble breaking opponents, even when they have a weaker serve. His return is definitely a liability and the Pole is also known to buckle under pressure when serving out sets.
Maroszan is a bit of a wild card here. His wins over Di Minaur and Ruud show that can he certainly hang with top competition, although those two players don’t have the power that Hurkacz does. While Maroszan prefers to stay in rallies and attack when the opportunity presents itself, he won’t be afforded that luxury in the quartfinal.
We predict that Hurkacz will win the match, but at 1.40 odds we don’t see the value in making that bet.
The best bet that we can find for this match is total tiebreaks over 0.5 at 1.66 odds.
Hurkacz played two tiebreaks in his match against Zhang, as well as another against Kokkinakis. Maroszan also saw a tiebreak against Ruud, and when he faced another big server in Rinderknech, they played until 7 as well.
Both players have been steadily winning over 75% of their first serves in Shanghai and we see this one playing out in a tight manner, as well.
The second ATP Shanghai quarterfinal bet preview takes us to an all-American matchup between 19th-ranked Ben Shelton and 27th-ranked Sebastian Korda.
Once again, both players had tough matches in the previous round. Shelton beat China Open winner Janik Sinner 2-6 6-3 7-6, while Korda edged 20th-ranked Francisco Cerundolo 7-5 7-6 to reach the final eight,
The bookmakers have this match dead even, with Shelton and Korda each listed at 1.9 to move on to the semifinals.
The total is also set at 23.5, while the handicap sees Korda giving up 0.5 games to his younger counterpart.
Although starting out the hard court season slowly with first-round loses in Atlanta and Washington, Shelton has seriously stepped up his game over the past six weeks. First, he pushed Alcaraz to a hard-fought battle in Toronto before doing the same to Tsitsipas in Cincinnati.
The battling finally turned into wins for the 21-year-old at the US Open, where he beat the likes of Dominic Thiem, Tommy Paul and Francis Tiafoe before ultimately falling to champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. He then went on to play in the Laver Cup, winning the two doubles matches that he played in.
In Shanghai, Shelton topped Spaniard Jaime Munar easily in the second round before grinding out a three-set win over Roman Safiullin. He then went on to knock off Sinner, holding his nerve in the final tiebreak to take home a victory.
Like Shelton, Korda started out the hard court season slowly, as he was recently returning from an injury. He saw early exits in Washington, Canada and Cincinnati before his semifinal run in Winston-Salem ended as he was forced to withdraw from a match against Jiri Lehecka.
A five-set loss in the US Open’s first round to Martin Fucsovics led into a semifinal showing in Zhuhai, where he was denied the final by top-seeded Karen Khachanov. However, things got on track in Astana, with Korda beating #1 seed Tallon Griekspoor before losing the final to Mannarino in three sets.
In Shanghai, Korda was served up an easy second round victory courtesy of local BuYunchaokete before he shocked 2nd-seeded Daniil Medvedev, who was coming off the China Open final. Last match out, he was 2/2 on break points to defeat the always difficult Cerundolo in two sets.
The bookies rightfully have this match at even odds because both players are more than capable of reaching the semifinals.
Shelton’s massive serve always offers him a way to get out of trouble in service games, while Korda’s ability to stay in the point could neutralize his opponent’s power. In the end, the younger Shelton should be able to use the quickness of the courts to overpower Korda, who will be playing his 9th match in 14 days.
We believe that Ben Shelton will beat Sebastian Korda as the player with the bigger serve and flatter hitting, just as Mannarino was able to do in the Astana final.
There’s no denying that Shelton has been on absolute fire since the US Open, having won 8 of 9 matches, with the sole loss coming against Novak Djokovic. Of those 8 wins, 3 of them have come against players in the top 10. While Korda had a great run in Astana, his wins came at the expense of players ranked outside the top 30.
Despite his win against Medvedev, who was coming off a final a few days earlier, we expect Korda to be overmatched in the ATP Shangai quarterfinal.
Our best bet for Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Korda is Shelton to win the match at 1.90 odds.