Looking for the best bets for Super Bowl 58? Our experts break down everything from the game winner to the top player props for the Big Game.
The Best Bets for Super Bowl 58
With the Big Game less than 24 hours away and 1000s of bets available at the top sportsbooks, the BetPreview experts are breaking down the best bets for Super Bowl 58.
From the Moneyline all the way down to the wildest props you can find, we help you walk away from Sunday’s game a winner.
The Best Super Bowl 58 Moneyline Bet: Who Wins Super Bowl 58?
When the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers kick off in Las Vegas, the Chiefs are looking to win their third Super Bowl since 2020. Led by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the team is on the verge of dynasty status and can cement their legacy in history with a win over the team they beat four years ago.
On the other side, former “Mr. Irrelevant” turned top-10 quarterback Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are looking for the franchises’ first championship since 1994.
So, who will take home the Lombardi trophy?
What are the Super Bowl 58 Moneyline Odds?
The game opened up with the 49ers as -150 favorites after their victory over the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game. However, that line was immediately bet down to -140. As more money comes in on the Chiefs, the line currently has San Francisco as -125 favorites and Kansas City as +110 underdogs.
DraftKings Sportsbook reports that while a majority of bets are on the Chiefs, the larger bets have come in on the 49ers.
With most casual bettors placing their action on Super Bowl Sunday, we could see a slight shift towards a more neutral line before kickoff.
What is the Best Moneyline Bet for Super Bowl 58?
While Patrick Mahomes had a career low in passing yards during the regular season, he has been lights out in the playoffs. Mahomes has set a record by not throwing an interception in his last six playoff games, which no quarterback in history has done while attempting at least 20 passes per game.
The last time these two teams met in week 7 of the 2022 season, Mahomes threw three touchdowns for 423 passing yards while completing 25 of his 34 passing attempts.
On the the side, as great as Purdy has been this season, he’s struggled under pressure. He faced pressure on 39.5% of his dropbacks this season, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Facing the blitz, Purdy threw seven interceptions in the regular season, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
With Steve Spagnuolo sure to dial up pressure from all angles, it will put Purdy in some uncomfortable positions throughout the game. While he has McCaffrey to take some weight off his shoulders with the run game, the 49ers may have difficulty getting into the endzone.
Our Super Bowl 58 Moneyline Best Bet: This should be a closely contested matchup that comes down to the 4th quarter. When you have Patrick Mahomes on one side of the ball and Brock Purdy on the other, we will go with the more experienced quarterback to lead his team to victory.
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline +110 at BetMGM and get a risk-free $1,000 bet.
The Best Over/Under Bet for Super Bowl 58
The total for Sunday’s game is set at 47, having been bet down from an opening line of 47.5.
This, combined with the spread, gives implied team totals of 24 for the 49ers and 23 for the Chiefs.
Both teams are set on running the ball, which will keep the time ticking throughout the game. The 49ers are one of the slowest teams in the league with a ranking of 31st in Situation Neutral Pace.
The Chiefs’ usually high-flying offense of the past has been replaced with a shorter passing game and a steady amount of running from Isiah Pacheco. The second-year running back has carried the ball 24 times twice in the playoffs and has been in control of the ball when KC is in the lead.
It should also be noted that the second half unders in the Chiefs games are an astounding 18-2 this year (playoffs included), as they are determined to slow the pace down when they have the lead
Our Super Bowl 58 Over/Under Best Bet: This game may be a lot slower than what casual fans are hoping to see. Both teams rely on the run and shorter, conservative passes and sustained drives. With the clock constantly running and defenses looking to limit big plays, we recommend the under.
The Best Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes First Player to Reach 100 Passing Yards at -120
Our next Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop pits him H2H against Brock Purdy in a race to 100 passing yards courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
While both players have been excellent in the first half of games this season, Mahomes has thrown for 2362 first half yards compared to Purdy’s 2099. With Christian McCaffrey to lean on to take the pressure off of the young quarterback, the 49ers are likely to come out run-heavy to calm any nerves Mr. Irrelevant may have early on.
Mahomes has been especially deadly in the 2nd quarter, where he has thown for 1507 yards compared to Purdy’s 1183. The 49ers also have a great run defense which can stifle Pacheco, leading to more passes from the KC quarterback.
You can read all of our best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 58 player prop bets here.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer at -120
While getting minus money on an anytime TD scorer is not always the best bet, it’s hard to believe that Pacheco doesn’t find his way into the endzone on Sunday.
Pacheco has scored a touchdown in his last seven games and the 49ers just gave up three rushing touchdowns to the Lions two weeks ago.
Gone are the days of a KC offense that lives off of deep balls. The more methodical approach to sustained drives has given Pacheco the opportunity to thrive in the redzone and the Super Bowl shouldn’t be any different.
In last year’s Super Bowl, Pacheco ran in a touchdown from the 1-yard line to cap off the first drive of the third quarter. When the Chiefs get inside the 10, they will be looking to hand the ball off to their tailback to get six points on the board.
Jauan Jennings Over 1.5 Receptions at +120
The Super Bowl is the time for offenses to incorporate their lesser-used receivers. With so much film to study over two weeks, offensive coordinators dig deep into the playbook to bring out looks that their opponents haven’t seen.
Jauan Jennings has seen his snap count rise in the playoffs. He had a big game against the Green Bay Packers, hauling in five catches on six targets for 61 yards. Against the Lions, he played 28 snaps and was lined up on the outside for 19 of them.
With the Chiefs’ lockdown duo of L’Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie focused on slowing down Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings should have some room to operate. Going against CB2s Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson, Jennings should find space to get open for two catches.
Brock Purdy Over 11.5 Rushing Yards at -130
Purdy has not been afraid to tuck and run when under pressure to pick up first downs in the playoffs.
Against the Lions, Purdy carried the ball five times for 48 yards, including breaking off a 21-yard run to extend a crucial drive. Against the Packers, he had six rushes for 14 yards with a long rush of 9 yards.
With Steve Spagnuolo ready to bring a variety of blitz packages, Purdy will definitely have some green grass in front of him if he is able to escape the pocket. The 11.5 number seems low for somebody that has shown they will go all-out to get the needed yards on third and fourth-downs.
The Best Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
Most Time of Possession – San Francisco 49ers at -115
As mentioned above, the 49ers are the second-slowed team in the NFL. The run-first, methodical approach to the game means that they love to hand the ball off to McCaffrey, throw short passes, and focus on picking up first downs.
With Purdy showing that he will put his body on the line to rush for first downs, the Lions saw first-hand just how hard it is to get the ball away from the 49ers offense in the second half of the NFC Championship game.
At nearly even odds, this looks like a great pick as the Chiefs rank as the 8th fastest team in Situation Neutral Pace.
Kansas City Chiefs Total Rush Attempted Over 22.5 at -120
You have to go back seven games to a matchup against the New England Patriots on December 27 to find a game where the Chiefs did not rush the ball at least 23 times.
In two of the three playoff games this year, Pacheco alone got 24 carries. Throw in at least three from Mahomes, a few for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and potentially a run from one of the wide receivers and we are easily over the total.
The reason this line is low is because the 49ers have a top-5 defense in rushing yards allowed. However, Andy Reid has shown he is committed to the run, even when it isn’t breaking off big plays.
Pacheco has not broken 100 yards in the playoffs, yet they continue to give him the ball regularly. Even if San Francisco can contain KC’s run game throughout the contest, there will still be a lot of players on the ground.
