Broncos vs Chiefs Bet Preview

Here is our Broncos vs Chiefs bet preview for Thursday Night Football. The reeling Broncos will look to contain the explosive Chiefs, but it won’t be easy for Sean Payton’s side.

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Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Overview

The Denver Broncos (1-4) will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (4-1) in Thursday night football.

Though we’re just into Week 6, the Chiefs are making their second showing on Thursday Night Football. Their season kicked off against the Detroit Lions, marking their sole defeat this year.

They’ve clinched four victories in a row and have consistently dominated the Broncos. Impressively, current MVP Mahomes, and his crew have triumphed over Denver in 15 successive clashes. Considering these achievements and with Kansas City playing on their home turf, they come into the game as strong favorites this week.

On the other hand, Denver’s disaster of a season continues after losing to the lowly Jets on Sunday. For all of Sean Payton’s talking in the offseason, the Broncos have not been able to turn things around, especially on the defensive end. They rank dead last in NFL defenses, even allowing the anemic Jets offense to put up over seven yards per play, which is not a good side when going up against one of the most explosive offenses of the past decade.

Broncos vs Chiefs History

The Broncos come into the game having lost 15 straight against the Chiefs. But, somehow they have managed to cover the spread in 4 of the last 5 games, giving some hope that the underdogs can keep this game somewhat competitive.

Over those last five games, the Chiefs have outscored the Broncos 144 to 84. However, the Broncos being heavy underdogs in a majority of those games means that they have helped bettors cash four times.

The last three matches have been offensive showcases, with the teams combining for 51, 62 and 52 points for the total go hit the over in two of the last three games.

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Odds

The Broncos vs Chiefs betting odds come to us today from Fanduel

  • Moneyline: Broncos at +450 | Chiefs at -600
  • Point Spread: Broncos +10.5 (-110) | Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
  • Total: Set at 47.5 (Over odds -110 | Under odds -110)

Broncos vs Chiefs Injury Report

Denver Broncos injury report

  • Javonte Williams – RB – Questionable
  • Lloyd Cushenberry – C – Questionable
  • Mike Purcell – DT – Questionable
  • Justin Simmons – S – Questionable
  • D.J. Jones – DT – Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • George Karlaftis – DE – Questionable
  • Nick Bolton – LB – Questionable
  • Matt Dickerson – DT – Questionable
  • Travis Kelce – TE – Questionable

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Trends

Chiefs Betting Trends

  • This year, Kansas City holds a record of 3-2-0 when it comes to beating the spread.
  • The Chiefs have successfully covered the spread in their lone game this season where they were favored by more than 10.5 points.
  • In 40% of their matches this season, the total points have surpassed the set limit.
  • When the Chiefs were the favored team on the moneyline, they clinched a victory 80% of the time, with a 4-1 record.
  • Only once this season did the Chiefs play as a moneyline favorite of -535 or less, and they emerged victorious in that encounter.

Broncos Betting Trends

  • Denver hasn’t secured a victory against the spread this year.
  • The Broncos games have gone over the total in 4 of 5 games this season.
  • Denver experienced a loss the only time they were the underdog this year.
  • The Broncos have yet to play a game with moneyline odds greater than +400 this season.

Broncos vs Chiefs Bet Prediction Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction: Broncos 20 – Chiefs 34

Broncos vs Chiefs Moneyline Bet Preview

The Chiefs should cruise to a victory over the struggling Broncos, so adding their -600 ML to a parlay is the only value we can see here.

There’s not too much to dig into on the moneyline side of things, as we have one of the top teams in the league playing at home…against the Broncos. It’s hard to envision a situation where Denver leaves Arrowhead with a win, especially after losing a very winnable game last week against the Jets.

With Mahomes spreading the ball around to Kelce and his deep receiving core, it’s going to take a miracle for the Broncos to slow down the home team with their defense. While Russell Wilson had a solid game on Sunday with two TDs, no interceptions and 49 yards on the ground, there isn’t much hope for Denver to actually pull out a win on Thursday Night Football.

Chiefs vs Broncos Moneyline Pick

With very little value at -600, the Chiefs ML is a good candidate to add to a parlay or be teased down, but there’s no point in trying to take just a +450 shot on the Broncos.

Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Bet Preview

The 10.5 spread in favour of the Chiefs is a tough number from oddsmakers because Denver has been able to keep things close against the Chiefs over the past two seasons. Let’s not forget, for all the mismatches in this game, it is still a division rivalry game and the Broncos have been able to cover four of the last five in the series.

That being said, the Broncos are 0-4-1 against the spread this year and it hasn’t been particularly close. They have inexplicably been favoured in four of their games this season, only pushing the spread giving up three against the Bears. In their sole game as a 6-point underdog against Miami, Denver was crushed by 50 points.

Since losing their season opener to the Lions as 4-point favourites, the Chiefs have covered in 3 of the last 4 games. As a 12.5 favourite against the Bears at home, Mahomes was firing on all cylinders to lead KC to a 41-10 victory. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the game play out similarly against such a weak defense, although the Broncos should muster up some more points on Thursday.

Broncos vs Chiefs ATS Pick

The Chiefs as 10.5 home favourites seems to be the play here, as Denver will have issues getting stops, even if Wilson and rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin can keep the ball moving.

Broncos vs Chiefs Total Bet Preview

The Broncos’ defense has certainly been struggling. Just last week, they were defeated by the Jets, 31-21. What’s surprising? The Jets secured just one traditional touchdown, courtesy of a 72-yard dash by Breece Hall. Their other points? A mix of five field goals, a touchdown from a fumble recovery, and a safety.

This marks the third occasion this season where the Broncos have conceded over 30 points. Their defensive average points allowed dipped to 36.2, but it remains the highest in the league. They’ve also been surrendering a substantial 450.6 yards each game, which isn’t ideal.

On a brighter note, Kansas City’s rushing offense is performing well. Isiah Pacheco is leading the charge, averaging 65 yards per game. He’s consistently delivered, with touchdowns in his last three games, and notably showcased his talent against the Broncos in the previous season.

Denver’s defense is in for a challenge handling Mahomes, especially considering his synergy with Kelce during their recent 27-20 victory over the Vikings. The duo teamed up for 67 yards and a touchdown, marking their third such connection in the last four matchups. While the team is still searching for a consistent alternative to Kelce, their offense ranks among the top 10 in terms of points (25.6) and yards (381) per matchup.

The Chiefs haven’t consistently matched their high-scoring reputation from 2022, except for their impressive 41-point display against the Bears. Given the Broncos’ recent defensive struggles, which are only marginally better than Chicago’s over the past five games, Kansas City could very well replicate a strong performance this Thursday.

Broncos vs Chiefs Total Pick

The posted total of 47.5 seems a bit low for a defense that gave up 70 the last time they played an explosive offense in Miami. Giving up 31 against the Jets is not a good sign, either. With Wilson finding a bit of a groove against a tough NYJ defense, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Broncos find the endzone at least twice, pushing the game over the 47.5 total.

Chiefs vs Broncos Best Bet

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer at -135

Opposing RBs have been torching the Broncos en route to the endzone this season. Brian Robinson scored twice in the first game, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane found paydirt 3 and 2 times respectively, and Breece Hall ran for 177 yards with a TD last week.

Pacheco has touchdowns in his last three games, all of which were against better defenses than Denver. He also got a score last year against the Broncos depsite only 9 carries, a number which he could easily double on Thursday night.

In a game where even conserative models have the Chiefs scoring at least three touchdowns, it’s hard to imagine that their red-hot running back doesn’t each the endzone at least once. Especially with a game script that could trend toward running in the second-half, we’ll lay the juice and take Pacheco to score anytime.

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