Dropping Sports Betting Odds
Dropping odds are a great way to understand where the money is flowing on betting markets. Our dropping odds tool lets you see where bettors are wagering and the changes that sportsbooks are making to even out their risk on a side.
Dropping odds help bettors find opportunities to make money because when money comes in heavily on one side, it can be significant. From injuries to lineup changes, a major drop in odds usually means that you want to be on the side that the money is coming in on.
What makes sports betting odds drop?
Sports betting odds can drop for a number of reasons, all of which are important for bettors to understand.
Player Injury
One of the most common factors in dropping odds is a player injury. Whether a team’s quarterback is missing the game or a starter is dealing with a lingering injury, it means that one team is at a disadvantage compared to the original odds. Looking at dropping odds will give you a heads up to dig deeper into any injuries so you have all the knowledge to make the right bet.
Lineup Changes
Maybe not due to an injury, but a coach making changes prior to a game can largely influence the odds. In a time where load management and player’s contracts are just as important as winning any particular, major lineup changes are much more common in sports today. Finding out that a key player won’t be starting a match will make odds drop, as it changes the original prediction that sportsbooks have when putting out their odds.
Weather
Weather can be an important factor in betting, especially on the over/under and totals. When betting lines are made, they generally assume that the teams will be player in normal weather conditions. However, heavy rain or wind can drastically change the teams’ ability to play their usual style. Especially true for player props like passing yards or kicker points, the weather can swing the odds in a big way.
Heavy Betting
Sometimes, dropping odds have nothing to do with the players or teams. When sharp bettors with large bankrolls believe that the sportsbooks have released odds that aren’t in line with their own models, they will lay down large bets on the side with value. In order to limit liabilities, sportsbooks will then raise the odds on the other side to attract more bettors to wager on that side. Typically, you want to be on the side of the sharp bettors as they have a big bankroll for a reason!
Situational Changes
Odds are often released before a team’s previous match, which can be weeks in advance. This means that many things can change between the original odds and the game being played. For example, if the Chiefs just clinched their division and home-field advantage, they may rest players in week 17. Staying on top of the odds movement lets you see where sharp bettors think the game script is going.
How do I use the Dropping Odds tool to make better bets?
By looking at which odds are dropping, you are instantly aware of any matches that are seeing a large amount of bets on one side. Simply check for the drop in odds shown in the tool, then you can head over to the Bet Previews page to get more information on why that is happening.
It should be noted that odds change all the time. When odds are dropping by a small margin, typically under 7%, that can just be a standard change due to public opinion. However, when you see odds dropping by 10% or more, you can be certain that new information has come out about the match that has caused the change.
Should I always bet on dropping odds?
Unfortunately, dropping odds aren’t going to guarantee you a win on any bet. The tool is to make you aware of any changes, so that you can do further research into why the odds have dropped and find out if there is a chance to get a value bet in.
In general, you like to be on the side of the dropping odds because it means that sharp bettors are putting their money on that market.
How do dropping odds factor into arbitrage betting?
The best case scenario as a bettor is that you have place a bet on a side and then the odds drop significantly. This means that you are on the right side of the line movement, which opens up possibilities for you. You can either decide to ride out the bet with your new found value or you can look to hedge your bet and guarantee a profit.
If the odds have dropped in your favour, you can see if they have crossed over into arbitrage profitability. This means that if the odds have dropped so much that if you place a wager on the other side, you will be profitable no matter what.
